Origins, evidence and access
Global in scope·A current case, last reviewed September 2026
Investigations into COVID-19's origins produced assessments hedged at low confidence and split between agencies, with early data incomplete and access to sites and records constrained. The question is empirical; the evidence collection was political. Some uncertainties are about the world, and some are about what we were allowed to examine.
The concepts this raises
Each of these gives a class a different way into the same case.
- EvidenceGrounds of Knowledge
- What is offered in support of a claim. Evidence is not the same as proof: it raises or lowers how likely a claim is, and its force depends on how it was gathered, what it was gathered for, and what else it is consistent with. Asking what would count as evidence against a claim is usually more revealing than listing evidence for it.
- CertaintyStatus of Knowledge
- The degree to which doubt about a claim has been closed off. Certainty is a state of the knower, not of the claim, which is why a claim can be true without anyone being certain of it and why confidence and reliability can come apart badly.
Where it sits in the knowledge framework
- Perspectives
- Whose viewpoints have shaped this knowledge, which viewpoints have been absent, and how the discipline handles internal disagreement. This element includes the historical dimension: how the standpoint of a field has moved over time.
- Methods and tools
- The practices, conventions, instruments and forms of reasoning through which knowledge here is actually made, together with the assumptions those methods build in and what they are structurally unable to detect.
Areas of knowledge
Themes
The same ideas, somewhere else
Cases that raise a concept this one raises, but in a different area of knowledge or a different part of the world. That contrast is the point: it is what shows a student the concept travels.
- South Asia
The third umpire and the ball that never arrived
A batter is given not out. The fielding side reviews. On the big screen, a tracking system reconstructs the ball's flight, and then continues it past the point…
Enduring · The natural sciences · Mathematics
- Evidence
- Interpretation
- Certainty
- India
The night the exit polls were wrong
Ahead of India's 2024 general election results, exit polls converged on a sweeping majority for the incumbent alliance; the counted votes delivered something…
Enduring · The human sciences
- Evidence
- Certainty
- South Asia
Does microcredit work? Ask which study
Microcredit spread from Bangladesh on powerful anecdotes of transformation; later randomised trials found modest average effects and few of the promised…
Enduring · The human sciences
- Evidence
- Certainty
- India
How do you count wild tigers?
India's tiger estimates moved from pugmark tracing to camera traps and stripe-pattern recognition, and the headline number rose partly because the method…
Enduring · The natural sciences
- Evidence
- Certainty
- Africa
When a government doubted the virus
South Africa's government under Mbeki gave platform to AIDS-dissident scientists and delayed antiretroviral rollout, and later epidemiological studies…
Enduring · The natural sciences
- Evidence
- Power
- Responsibility
- Southeast Asia
The city the lasers found under the jungle
Airborne laser scanning over Angkor stripped away the canopy digitally and revealed a vast low-density urban sprawl around the temples, overturning estimates…
Enduring · History
- Evidence
- Interpretation